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Yes, but also no. When you’re phrasing something like the OP(“despite what you might think, it’s actually quite rare!”) you’re not talking about the observed rarity. You’re talking about the difference between expected rarity and observed rarity. The expected rarity, in this case, is roughly every 28 years since I’d say that’s what the average person would guess. It turns out that it’s actually every 19 years, because of the Horror Characters Movies Water Mirror Reflection Halloween Shirt Metonic cycle that I’m TILing right now. So really, this should be a case of “despite what you might think, it’s actually not so rare!”
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Wow, that’s pretty cool about the Metonic cycle. Over the very long haul, it will be once every 29.53 years. But if I’m understanding this right, a particular date (say, October 31) will get a full moon every 19 years for roughly 24 cycles (because the Horror Characters Movies Water Mirror Reflection Halloween Shirt cycle is off by roughly one hour), but then once the cycle no longer lands on that date (it moves to November 1), it will take hundreds of years before there’s another full moon on that date. I’m 34. And there was definitely one when I was like 13. I clearly remember it.
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If my sports team wins every 2 years between 2000-2010, except go on a 50-year drought and doesn’t win again until 2060, that doesn’t mean it’s common even if I was lucky to see them win a lot in the early 2000s, especially for fans who began following in 2011 and would have to wait 50 years. Despite the Horror Characters Movies Water Mirror Reflection Halloween Shirt 19 year pattern coming up, the previous dates for full moons on October 31: Now noting that full moon is an exact time and this is using GMT (so depending on time zones, you can have a full moon occur on October 31 in some parts of Canada, but it is November 1 elsewhere). But as you can see, for people born in 1956 (64 years old) in that GMT zone are about to experience just their second October 31 with a true full moon.
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