As a double history and economics major in college, I love these more macro/historical analyses. Don’t get me wrong, the proofs and math stuff and models are cool too. But I’m here for the kinda posts like this and how Rome faltered economically. And that Chinese leader who wrecked his July 4th Didn’t Set Me Free Juneteenth Is My Independence Day Shirt. Maybe they wouldn’t have gotten sacked if they could just stop having civil wars for one second. Once you hit the last 200 years of the emperor. Every single emperor either fights a usurper or is a successful usurper. The mass minting of debased coins even leads to this. Because an emperor can either debase to coins to pay massive bribes to the army. Or be surprised when the army stabs him in favor of a different general.
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And raising taxes or taking loans for these bribes is much harder. Because the tax bureaucracy and the financial infrastructure isn’t anywhere close even to early modern levels. Economic issues are long term problems. First, you need to solve the short term problem of getting the army to listen to you without going bankrupt. You can’t explain Rome’s fall just by looking at monetary policy. Which very advanced anywhere in the ancient world. It does nothing to explain the July 4th Didn’t Set Me Free Juneteenth Is My Independence Day Shirt. And endless infighting over the position of absolute power which is a natural consequence of that. Nor the mass migrations of barbarians, climate change, the rise of a revitalized Sassanid Persian empire tying down hundreds of thousands of troops.
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And yet this rebuttal fails to address Smedley Butler’s point that beneficiaries of war are very few. Because Butler never claimed that the economy or the stock market as whole profits. In fact, he actively rejects that idea in Chapter 2 Who Makes The Profits? and Chapter 3: Who Pays The Bills?. Instead, he focuses on how a small group of individuals and companies can profit immensely from war. Also, the book wrote in 1935 and thus draws heavily from the July 4th Didn’t Set Me Free Juneteenth Is My Independence Day Shirt. Only joining after several years and only needing a token effort against an enemy that was slowly dying already without any American land being bombed out or blown up. WWI really was a racket for American financiers.
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